Play: wait for a flush below 426.59, then buy the reclaim back above 432.34. Stop = the flush low (426.06 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: ETN sold off hard into a tested support zone at 426.59–432.34. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 432.58 (actual reclaim price) |
| Stop | 426.06 (the actual intraday flush low) |
| 1R | 6.51 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 445.61 |
| +3R target | 452.12 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 6.51 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 6.51. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | IN_ZONE | 426.59–432.34 (6t) | 2.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07T20:46 | ARMED | 431.33 | zone 426.59-432.34 |
| 2026-10-07T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-07: never completed | |
| 2026-10-08T13:36 | UNDERCUT | 426.06 | ETN: WATCHING — undercut 426.59, flush low 426.06, awaiting reclaim of 432.34 |
| 2026-10-08T15:37 | TRIGGERED | 432.58 | ETN: TRIGGERED @ 432.58 | stop 426.02 (flush low) | risk/share 6.56 (1.52%) |
| 2026-10-08T16:53 | FAILED | 426.02 | ETN: FAILED — green-to-red back through 426.59; if entered, exit per rules |
| 2026-10-08T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-08 captured |