OK · data 2026-10-08 · 311/313 · watch stalled · f04d951 Sign in to run
AVAV NO_TRIGGER 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-07 · obp

Play: wait for a flush below 138.31, then buy the reclaim back above 140.43. Stop = the flush low (137.74 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.

How to play this (plain English)

The setup: AVAV sold off hard into a tested support zone at 138.31–140.43. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.

Entry 140.43 (≈ the zone top — the reclaim level)
Stop 137.74 (the actual intraday flush low)
1R 2.69 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it.
+2R target145.82
+3R target148.51
Size Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 2.69 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 2.69.

Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.

Alerts

scanstatuszoneflushdialnote
2026-09-28APPROACHING 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.3 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-29APPROACHING 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.7 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-30APPROACHING 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.5 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-01IN_ZONE 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.8 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-02APPROACHING 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.9 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-05IN_ZONE 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.7 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-06APPROACHING 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.7 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-07IN_ZONE 138.31–140.43 (4t) 2.1 ADR 0.25-0.50%

Events

ts (UTC)eventpricedetail
2026-09-28T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-28: never completed
2026-09-29T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-29: never completed
2026-09-30T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-30: never completed
2026-10-01T20:46ARMED 140.31 zone 138.31-140.43
2026-10-01T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-10-01: never completed
2026-10-02T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-10-02: never completed
2026-10-05T20:46ARMED 139.30 zone 138.31-140.43
2026-10-05T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-10-05: never completed
2026-10-06T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-10-06: never completed
2026-10-07T20:46ARMED 138.86 zone 138.31-140.43
2026-10-07T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-10-07: never completed
2026-10-08T13:32UNDERCUT 137.74 AVAV: WATCHING — undercut 138.31, flush low 137.74, awaiting reclaim of 140.43
2026-10-08T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-10-08: never completed
Personal research log. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation. Hypothetical/paper outcomes unless stated otherwise. An independent research system; not affiliated with, endorsed by, or representing any individual, service, or brand.