Play: wait for a flush below 1.60, then buy the reclaim back above 1.61. Stop = the flush low (3.79 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: TMC sold off hard into a tested support zone at 1.60–1.61. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 1.61 (≈ the zone top — the reclaim level) |
| Stop | 3.79 (the actual intraday flush low) |
| 1R | 0.01 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 1.63 |
| +3R target | 1.64 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 0.01 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 0.01. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | IN_ZONE | 3.93–3.95 (4t) | 2.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-28 | APPROACHING | 3.80–3.84 (3t) | 3.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-29 | APPROACHING | 3.55–3.57 (4t) | 3.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-30 | IN_ZONE | 3.80–3.84 (3t) | 2.7 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-01 | APPROACHING | 3.55–3.57 (4t) | 3.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-06 | APPROACHING | 3.55–3.57 (4t) | 2.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-08 | CAPITULATION | 1.60–1.61 (3t) | 3.9 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | flush today |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25T20:45 | ARMED | 3.93 | zone 3.93-3.95 |
| 2026-09-25T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-25: never completed | |
| 2026-09-28T13:32 | UNDERCUT | 3.82 | TMC: WATCHING — undercut 3.93, flush low 3.82, awaiting reclaim of 3.95 |
| 2026-09-28T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-28: never completed | |
| 2026-09-29T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-29: never completed | |
| 2026-09-30T20:45 | ARMED | 3.84 | zone 3.80-3.84 |
| 2026-09-30T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-30: never completed | |
| 2026-10-01T13:31 | UNDERCUT | 3.79 | TMC: WATCHING — undercut 3.80, flush low 3.79, awaiting reclaim of 3.84 |
| 2026-10-01T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-01: never completed | |
| 2026-10-02T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-02: never completed | |
| 2026-10-05T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-05: never completed | |
| 2026-10-06T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-06: never completed | |
| 2026-10-07T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-07: never completed | |
| 2026-10-08T20:46 | ARMED | 3.43 | zone 1.60-1.61 |
| 2026-10-08T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-08: never completed |