Play: wait for a flush below 3.34, then buy the reclaim back above 3.38. Stop = the flush low (3.34 provisional). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: NIO sold off hard into a tested support zone at 3.34–3.38. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 3.38 (≈ the zone top — the reclaim level) |
| Stop | 3.34 (provisional: the zone bottom — once a real flush happens, the stop moves to that flush low, usually tighter) |
| 1R | 0.04 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 3.46 |
| +3R target | 3.50 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 0.04 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 0.04. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | APPROACHING | 3.55–3.57 (5t) | 2.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-25 | APPROACHING | 3.55–3.57 (5t) | 2.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-28 | APPROACHING | 3.55–3.57 (6t) | 2.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-29 | APPROACHING | 3.34–3.35 (4t) | 3.9 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-30 | APPROACHING | 3.34–3.35 (4t) | 4.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-01 | APPROACHING | 3.34–3.35 (4t) | 4.1 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-02 | APPROACHING | 3.34–3.35 (4t) | 3.8 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-05 | APPROACHING | 3.34–3.35 (4t) | 3.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-06 | CAPITULATION | 3.34–3.35 (4t) | 3.8 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | flush 2 session(s) ago |
| 2026-10-08 | APPROACHING | 3.34–3.38 (6t) | 2.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-24: never completed | |
| 2026-09-25T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-25: never completed | |
| 2026-09-28T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-28: never completed | |
| 2026-09-29T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-29: never completed | |
| 2026-09-30T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-30: never completed | |
| 2026-10-01T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-01: never completed | |
| 2026-10-02T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-02: never completed | |
| 2026-10-05T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-05: never completed | |
| 2026-10-06T20:46 | ARMED | 3.48 | zone 3.34-3.35 |
| 2026-10-06T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-06: never completed | |
| 2026-10-07T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-07: never completed | |
| 2026-10-08T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-08: never completed |