Play: wait for a flush below 44.45, then buy the reclaim back above 44.55. Stop = the flush low (44.05 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: BP sold off hard into a tested support zone at 44.45–44.55. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 44.64 (actual reclaim price) |
| Stop | 44.05 (the actual intraday flush low) |
| 1R | 0.59 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 45.82 |
| +3R target | 46.41 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 0.59 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 0.59. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | IN_ZONE | 44.45–44.55 (3t) | 3.5 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-24 | APPROACHING | 44.11–44.17 (4t) | 2.9 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-25 | IN_ZONE | 44.11–44.17 (4t) | 3.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-29 | APPROACHING | 43.22–43.42 (5t) | 2.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-30 | APPROACHING | 43.22–43.42 (5t) | 2.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-01 | IN_ZONE | 44.45–44.55 (3t) | 2.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23T20:46 | ARMED | 44.49 | zone 44.45-44.55 |
| 2026-09-23T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-23: never completed | |
| 2026-09-24T18:01 | UNDERCUT | 44.41 | BP: WATCHING — undercut 44.45, flush low 44.41, awaiting reclaim of 44.55 |
| 2026-09-24T18:09 | TRIGGERED | 44.58 | BP: TRIGGERED @ 44.58 | stop 44.35 (flush low) | risk/share 0.23 (0.50%) |
| 2026-09-24T18:17 | FAILED | 44.35 | BP: FAILED — green-to-red back through 44.45; if entered, exit per rules |
| 2026-09-24T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-24 captured | |
| 2026-09-25T20:45 | ARMED | 44.15 | zone 44.11-44.17 |
| 2026-09-25T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-25 captured | |
| 2026-09-28T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-28 captured | |
| 2026-09-29T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-29 captured | |
| 2026-09-30T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-30 captured | |
| 2026-10-01T20:46 | ARMED | 44.50 | zone 44.45-44.55 |
| 2026-10-01T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-01 captured | |
| 2026-10-02T13:31 | UNDERCUT | 44.05 | BP: WATCHING — undercut 44.45, flush low 44.05, awaiting reclaim of 44.55 |
| 2026-10-02T13:57 | TRIGGERED | 44.64 | BP: TRIGGERED @ 44.64 | stop 44.05 (flush low) | risk/share 0.59 (1.32%) |
| 2026-10-02T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-02 captured | |
| 2026-10-05T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-05 captured | |
| 2026-10-06T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-06 captured | |
| 2026-10-07T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-07 captured | |
| 2026-10-08T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-08 captured |