OK · data 2026-10-08 · 311/313 · watch stalled · f04d951 Sign in to run
IBM FAILED 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-08 · obp

Play: wait for a flush below 220.72, then buy the reclaim back above 221.73. Stop = the flush low (220.65 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.

How to play this (plain English)

The setup: IBM sold off hard into a tested support zone at 220.72–221.73. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.

Entry 221.88 (actual reclaim price)
Stop 220.65 (the actual intraday flush low)
1R 1.23 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it.
+2R target224.35
+3R target225.59
Size Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 1.23 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 1.23.

Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.

Alerts

scanstatuszoneflushdialnote
2026-09-16IN_ZONE 235.95–239.35 (8t) 2.6 ADR 0-0.25%
2026-09-17IN_ZONE 235.95–239.35 (8t) 2.3 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-18IN_ZONE 228.96–230.97 (4t) 3.4 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-21APPROACHING 228.96–230.97 (4t) 3.6 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-22APPROACHING 228.96–230.97 (4t) 3.3 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-23APPROACHING 228.96–230.97 (4t) 2.9 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-24APPROACHING 220.72–221.73 (4t) 3.8 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-25APPROACHING 220.72–221.73 (4t) 2.9 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-29APPROACHING 214.50–214.61 (3t) 2.9 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-30APPROACHING 214.50–214.61 (3t) 3.1 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-01APPROACHING 220.72–221.73 (4t) 2.1 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-02APPROACHING 220.72–221.73 (4t) 2.5 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-05IN_ZONE 220.72–221.73 (4t) 2.2 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-06IN_ZONE 220.72–221.73 (4t) 2.1 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-08APPROACHING 220.72–221.73 (4t) 2.8 ADR 0.25-0.50%

Events

ts (UTC)eventpricedetail
2026-09-16T20:45ARMED 237.49 zone 235.95-239.35
2026-09-16T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-16: never completed
2026-09-17T20:46ARMED 237.75 zone 235.95-239.35
2026-09-17T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-17: never completed
2026-09-18T13:32UNDERCUT 235.59 IBM: WATCHING — undercut 235.95, flush low 235.59, awaiting reclaim of 239.35
2026-09-18T20:45ARMED 229.55 zone 228.96-230.97
2026-09-18T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-18: never completed
2026-09-21T15:27UNDERCUT 228.93 IBM: WATCHING — undercut 228.96, flush low 228.93, awaiting reclaim of 230.97
2026-09-21T19:58TRIGGERED 231.62 IBM: TRIGGERED @ 231.62 | stop 228.38 (flush low) | risk/share 3.24 (1.40%)
2026-09-21T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-21 captured
2026-09-22T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-22 captured
2026-09-23T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-23 captured
2026-09-24T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-24 captured
2026-09-25T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-25 captured
2026-09-28T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-28 captured
2026-09-29T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-29 captured
2026-09-30T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-30 captured
2026-10-01T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-01 captured
2026-10-02T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-02 captured
2026-10-05T20:46ARMED 221.58 zone 220.72-221.73
2026-10-05T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-05 captured
2026-10-06T20:46ARMED 221.29 zone 220.72-221.73
2026-10-06T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-06 captured
2026-10-07T13:38UNDERCUT 220.65 IBM: WATCHING — undercut 220.72, flush low 220.65, awaiting reclaim of 221.73
2026-10-07T18:27TRIGGERED 221.88 IBM: TRIGGERED @ 221.88 | stop 218.96 (flush low) | risk/share 2.93 (1.32%)
2026-10-07T19:50FAILED 218.96 IBM: FAILED — green-to-red back through 220.72; if entered, exit per rules
2026-10-07T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-07 captured
2026-10-08T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-08 captured
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