Play: wait for a flush below 220.72, then buy the reclaim back above 221.73. Stop = the flush low (220.65 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: IBM sold off hard into a tested support zone at 220.72–221.73. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 221.88 (actual reclaim price) |
| Stop | 220.65 (the actual intraday flush low) |
| 1R | 1.23 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 224.35 |
| +3R target | 225.59 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 1.23 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 1.23. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | IN_ZONE | 235.95–239.35 (8t) | 2.6 ADR | 0-0.25% | |
| 2026-09-17 | IN_ZONE | 235.95–239.35 (8t) | 2.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-18 | IN_ZONE | 228.96–230.97 (4t) | 3.4 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-21 | APPROACHING | 228.96–230.97 (4t) | 3.6 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-22 | APPROACHING | 228.96–230.97 (4t) | 3.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-23 | APPROACHING | 228.96–230.97 (4t) | 2.9 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-24 | APPROACHING | 220.72–221.73 (4t) | 3.8 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-25 | APPROACHING | 220.72–221.73 (4t) | 2.9 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-29 | APPROACHING | 214.50–214.61 (3t) | 2.9 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-30 | APPROACHING | 214.50–214.61 (3t) | 3.1 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-01 | APPROACHING | 220.72–221.73 (4t) | 2.1 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-02 | APPROACHING | 220.72–221.73 (4t) | 2.5 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-05 | IN_ZONE | 220.72–221.73 (4t) | 2.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-06 | IN_ZONE | 220.72–221.73 (4t) | 2.1 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-08 | APPROACHING | 220.72–221.73 (4t) | 2.8 ADR | 0.25-0.50% |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16T20:45 | ARMED | 237.49 | zone 235.95-239.35 |
| 2026-09-16T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-16: never completed | |
| 2026-09-17T20:46 | ARMED | 237.75 | zone 235.95-239.35 |
| 2026-09-17T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-17: never completed | |
| 2026-09-18T13:32 | UNDERCUT | 235.59 | IBM: WATCHING — undercut 235.95, flush low 235.59, awaiting reclaim of 239.35 |
| 2026-09-18T20:45 | ARMED | 229.55 | zone 228.96-230.97 |
| 2026-09-18T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-18: never completed | |
| 2026-09-21T15:27 | UNDERCUT | 228.93 | IBM: WATCHING — undercut 228.96, flush low 228.93, awaiting reclaim of 230.97 |
| 2026-09-21T19:58 | TRIGGERED | 231.62 | IBM: TRIGGERED @ 231.62 | stop 228.38 (flush low) | risk/share 3.24 (1.40%) |
| 2026-09-21T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-21 captured | |
| 2026-09-22T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-22 captured | |
| 2026-09-23T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-23 captured | |
| 2026-09-24T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-24 captured | |
| 2026-09-25T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-25 captured | |
| 2026-09-28T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-28 captured | |
| 2026-09-29T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-29 captured | |
| 2026-09-30T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-30 captured | |
| 2026-10-01T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-01 captured | |
| 2026-10-02T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-02 captured | |
| 2026-10-05T20:46 | ARMED | 221.58 | zone 220.72-221.73 |
| 2026-10-05T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-05 captured | |
| 2026-10-06T20:46 | ARMED | 221.29 | zone 220.72-221.73 |
| 2026-10-06T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-06 captured | |
| 2026-10-07T13:38 | UNDERCUT | 220.65 | IBM: WATCHING — undercut 220.72, flush low 220.65, awaiting reclaim of 221.73 |
| 2026-10-07T18:27 | TRIGGERED | 221.88 | IBM: TRIGGERED @ 221.88 | stop 218.96 (flush low) | risk/share 2.93 (1.32%) |
| 2026-10-07T19:50 | FAILED | 218.96 | IBM: FAILED — green-to-red back through 220.72; if entered, exit per rules |
| 2026-10-07T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-07 captured | |
| 2026-10-08T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-08 captured |