Play: wait for a flush below 301.73, then buy the reclaim back above 303.79. Stop = the flush low (301.62 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: AXP sold off hard into a tested support zone at 301.73–303.79. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 303.79 (≈ the zone top — the reclaim level) |
| Stop | 301.62 (the actual intraday flush low) |
| 1R | 2.17 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 308.13 |
| +3R target | 310.30 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 2.17 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 2.17. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | IN_ZONE | 312.23–313.69 (4t) | 3.6 ADR | 0-0.25% | |
| 2026-09-17 | APPROACHING | 309.64–310.00 (3t) | 3.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-18 | APPROACHING | 309.64–310.00 (3t) | 3.8 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-21 | IN_ZONE | 312.23–313.62 (3t) | 3.4 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-22 | APPROACHING | 303.04–303.79 (5t) | 4.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-24 | APPROACHING | 303.04–303.79 (5t) | 5.4 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-25 | APPROACHING | 306.23–307.82 (6t) | 3.1 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-28 | IN_ZONE | 306.23–307.82 (6t) | 2.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-29 | APPROACHING | 301.73–303.79 (6t) | 2.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-30 | APPROACHING | 301.73–303.79 (5t) | 2.4 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-01 | IN_ZONE | 301.73–303.79 (5t) | 3.5 ADR | 0.25-0.50% |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16T20:45 | ARMED | 312.43 | zone 312.23-313.69 |
| 2026-09-16T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-16: never completed | |
| 2026-09-17T19:42 | UNDERCUT | 312.23 | AXP: WATCHING — undercut 312.23, flush low 312.23, awaiting reclaim of 313.69 |
| 2026-09-17T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-17: never completed | |
| 2026-09-18T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-18: never completed | |
| 2026-09-21T20:45 | ARMED | 313.59 | zone 312.23-313.62 |
| 2026-09-21T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-21: never completed | |
| 2026-09-22T14:16 | UNDERCUT | 312.21 | AXP: WATCHING — undercut 312.23, flush low 312.21, awaiting reclaim of 313.62 |
| 2026-09-22T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-22: never completed | |
| 2026-09-23T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-23: never completed | |
| 2026-09-24T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-24: never completed | |
| 2026-09-25T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-25: never completed | |
| 2026-09-28T20:46 | ARMED | 306.33 | zone 306.23-307.82 |
| 2026-09-28T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-28: never completed | |
| 2026-09-29T13:31 | UNDERCUT | 305.87 | AXP: WATCHING — undercut 306.23, flush low 305.87, awaiting reclaim of 307.82 |
| 2026-09-29T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-29: never completed | |
| 2026-09-30T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-30: never completed | |
| 2026-10-01T20:46 | ARMED | 302.09 | zone 301.73-303.79 |
| 2026-10-01T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-01: never completed | |
| 2026-10-02T13:35 | UNDERCUT | 301.62 | AXP: WATCHING — undercut 301.73, flush low 301.62, awaiting reclaim of 303.79 |
| 2026-10-02T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-02: never completed | |
| 2026-10-05T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-05: never completed | |
| 2026-10-06T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-06: never completed | |
| 2026-10-07T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-07: never completed | |
| 2026-10-08T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-10-08: never completed |