Play: wait for a flush below 514.37, then buy the reclaim back above 519.09. Stop = the flush low (514.00 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: CMI sold off hard into a tested support zone at 514.37–519.09. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 519.28 (actual reclaim price) |
| Stop | 514.00 (the actual intraday flush low) |
| 1R | 5.28 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 529.85 |
| +3R target | 535.14 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 5.28 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 5.28. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | APPROACHING | 525.56–527.40 (5t) | 2.6 ADR | 0-0.25% | |
| 2026-09-16 | APPROACHING | 525.56–527.40 (5t) | 3.4 ADR | 0-0.25% | |
| 2026-09-18 | APPROACHING | 525.56–527.40 (5t) | 2.8 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-21 | APPROACHING | 525.56–527.40 (5t) | 2.5 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-22 | IN_ZONE | 525.56–527.40 (5t) | 2.9 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-23 | APPROACHING | 516.96–521.80 (4t) | 3.4 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-24 | IN_ZONE | 516.96–521.80 (4t) | 2.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-28 | IN_ZONE | 514.37–519.09 (4t) | 2.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-30 | IN_ZONE | 514.37–519.09 (4t) | 2.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-01 | IN_ZONE | 514.37–519.09 (4t) | 2.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-15: never completed | |
| 2026-09-16T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-16: never completed | |
| 2026-09-17T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-17: never completed | |
| 2026-09-18T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-18: never completed | |
| 2026-09-21T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-21: never completed | |
| 2026-09-22T20:45 | ARMED | 526.13 | zone 525.56-527.40 |
| 2026-09-22T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-22: never completed | |
| 2026-09-23T13:31 | UNDERCUT | 521.61 | CMI: WATCHING — undercut 525.56, flush low 521.61, awaiting reclaim of 527.40 |
| 2026-09-23T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-23: never completed | |
| 2026-09-24T20:46 | ARMED | 521.07 | zone 516.96-521.80 |
| 2026-09-24T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-24: never completed | |
| 2026-09-25T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-25: never completed | |
| 2026-09-28T20:46 | ARMED | 517.84 | zone 514.37-519.09 |
| 2026-09-28T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-28: never completed | |
| 2026-09-29T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-29: never completed | |
| 2026-09-30T20:45 | ARMED | 516.57 | zone 514.37-519.09 |
| 2026-09-30T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-30: never completed | |
| 2026-10-01T13:31 | UNDERCUT | 514.00 | CMI: WATCHING — undercut 514.37, flush low 514.00, awaiting reclaim of 519.09 |
| 2026-10-01T15:30 | TRIGGERED | 519.28 | CMI: TRIGGERED @ 519.28 | stop 510.28 (flush low) | risk/share 9.00 (1.73%) |
| 2026-10-01T17:48 | FAILED | 510.28 | CMI: FAILED — green-to-red back through 514.37; if entered, exit per rules |
| 2026-10-01T20:46 | ARMED | 517.00 | zone 514.37-519.09 |
| 2026-10-01T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-01 captured | |
| 2026-10-02T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-02 captured | |
| 2026-10-05T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-05 captured | |
| 2026-10-06T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-06 captured |