Play: wait for a flush below 333.83, then buy the reclaim back above 336.39. Stop = the flush low (340.43 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.
How to play this (plain English)
The setup: TPL sold off hard into a tested support zone at 333.83–336.39. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.
| Entry | 349.71 (actual reclaim price) |
| Stop | 340.43 (the actual intraday flush low) |
| 1R | 9.28 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it. |
| +2R target | 368.28 |
| +3R target | 377.56 |
| Size | Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 9.28 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 9.28. |
Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.
Alerts
| scan | status | zone | flush | dial | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | APPROACHING | 354.62–361.20 (7t) | 2.1 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-14 | APPROACHING | 354.62–361.20 (7t) | 2.1 ADR | 0-0.25% | |
| 2026-09-16 | IN_ZONE | 348.46–349.63 (4t) | 3.1 ADR | 0-0.25% | |
| 2026-09-17 | APPROACHING | 340.46–344.17 (4t) | 3.2 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-18 | APPROACHING | 348.46–349.63 (4t) | 3.5 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-21 | APPROACHING | 354.62–361.20 (7t) | 2.8 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-23 | IN_ZONE | 333.83–336.39 (4t) | 3.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-24 | APPROACHING | 333.83–336.39 (4t) | 3.4 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-25 | IN_ZONE | 340.46–344.17 (4t) | 2.7 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-28 | APPROACHING | 333.83–336.39 (4t) | 2.4 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-29 | IN_ZONE | 323.17–328.98 (9t) | 3.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-09-30 | IN_ZONE | 323.17–328.98 (9t) | 3.3 ADR | 0.25-0.50% | |
| 2026-10-01 | APPROACHING | 333.83–336.39 (4t) | 3.0 ADR | 0.25-0.50% |
Events
| ts (UTC) | event | price | detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-11: never completed | |
| 2026-09-14T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-14: never completed | |
| 2026-09-15T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-15: never completed | |
| 2026-09-16T20:45 | ARMED | 348.57 | zone 348.46-349.63 |
| 2026-09-16T21:00 | NO_TRIGGER | session 2026-09-16: never completed | |
| 2026-09-17T14:54 | UNDERCUT | 348.43 | TPL: WATCHING — undercut 348.46, flush low 348.43, awaiting reclaim of 349.63 |
| 2026-09-17T17:36 | TRIGGERED | 349.71 | TPL: TRIGGERED @ 349.71 | stop 346.59 (flush low) | risk/share 3.12 (0.89%) |
| 2026-09-17T17:48 | FAILED | 346.59 | TPL: FAILED — green-to-red back through 348.46; if entered, exit per rules |
| 2026-09-17T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-17 captured | |
| 2026-09-18T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-18 captured | |
| 2026-09-21T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-21 captured | |
| 2026-09-22T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-22 captured | |
| 2026-09-23T20:46 | ARMED | 335.74 | zone 333.83-336.39 |
| 2026-09-23T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-23 captured | |
| 2026-09-24T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-24 captured | |
| 2026-09-25T20:45 | ARMED | 341.07 | zone 340.46-344.17 |
| 2026-09-25T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-25 captured | |
| 2026-09-28T13:52 | UNDERCUT | 340.43 | TPL: WATCHING — undercut 340.46, flush low 340.43, awaiting reclaim of 344.17 |
| 2026-09-28T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-28 captured | |
| 2026-09-29T20:45 | ARMED | 328.70 | zone 323.17-328.98 |
| 2026-09-29T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-29 captured | |
| 2026-09-30T20:45 | ARMED | 325.83 | zone 323.17-328.98 |
| 2026-09-30T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-09-30 captured | |
| 2026-10-01T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-01 captured | |
| 2026-10-02T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-02 captured | |
| 2026-10-05T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-05 captured | |
| 2026-10-06T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-06 captured | |
| 2026-10-07T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-07 captured | |
| 2026-10-08T21:00 | SESSION_END | session 2026-10-08 captured |