OK · data 2026-10-08 · 311/313 · watch stalled · f04d951 Sign in to run
TPL FAILED 2026-09-11 → 2026-10-01 · obp

Play: wait for a flush below 333.83, then buy the reclaim back above 336.39. Stop = the flush low (340.43 actual). No reclaim, no trade — full plan below.

How to play this (plain English)

The setup: TPL sold off hard into a tested support zone at 333.83–336.39. The trade is the flush-and-reclaim: wait for price to dip below the zone intraday (the flush), stabilize, then climb back above it (the reclaim). The reclaim is the entry — you're buying the moment sellers who broke the level have been absorbed. If price undercuts the zone and keeps falling, there is no trade; you never buy the knife.

Entry 349.71 (actual reclaim price)
Stop 340.43 (the actual intraday flush low)
1R 9.28 — entry minus stop. This is your unit of risk; every profit is measured in multiples of it.
+2R target368.28
+3R target377.56
Size Risk 0.25-0.50% of the account (the regime dial). Shares = (account × risk%) ÷ 1R. Example: risking 0.25% with a 9.28 stop distance → shares = 0.0025 × account ÷ 9.28.

Exit logic: if the trade rolls green-to-red back through the zone after entry, that's the FAILED signal — exit at the stop, lose 1R, move on. Winners typically run 4–8% over 3–10 days; sell partials at +2R/+3R and trail the rest. One losing trade costs 1R; the math works because winners are multiples of it.

Alerts

scanstatuszoneflushdialnote
2026-09-11APPROACHING 354.62–361.20 (7t) 2.1 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-14APPROACHING 354.62–361.20 (7t) 2.1 ADR 0-0.25%
2026-09-16IN_ZONE 348.46–349.63 (4t) 3.1 ADR 0-0.25%
2026-09-17APPROACHING 340.46–344.17 (4t) 3.2 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-18APPROACHING 348.46–349.63 (4t) 3.5 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-21APPROACHING 354.62–361.20 (7t) 2.8 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-23IN_ZONE 333.83–336.39 (4t) 3.3 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-24APPROACHING 333.83–336.39 (4t) 3.4 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-25IN_ZONE 340.46–344.17 (4t) 2.7 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-28APPROACHING 333.83–336.39 (4t) 2.4 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-29IN_ZONE 323.17–328.98 (9t) 3.0 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-09-30IN_ZONE 323.17–328.98 (9t) 3.3 ADR 0.25-0.50%
2026-10-01APPROACHING 333.83–336.39 (4t) 3.0 ADR 0.25-0.50%

Events

ts (UTC)eventpricedetail
2026-09-11T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-11: never completed
2026-09-14T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-14: never completed
2026-09-15T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-15: never completed
2026-09-16T20:45ARMED 348.57 zone 348.46-349.63
2026-09-16T21:00NO_TRIGGER session 2026-09-16: never completed
2026-09-17T14:54UNDERCUT 348.43 TPL: WATCHING — undercut 348.46, flush low 348.43, awaiting reclaim of 349.63
2026-09-17T17:36TRIGGERED 349.71 TPL: TRIGGERED @ 349.71 | stop 346.59 (flush low) | risk/share 3.12 (0.89%)
2026-09-17T17:48FAILED 346.59 TPL: FAILED — green-to-red back through 348.46; if entered, exit per rules
2026-09-17T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-17 captured
2026-09-18T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-18 captured
2026-09-21T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-21 captured
2026-09-22T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-22 captured
2026-09-23T20:46ARMED 335.74 zone 333.83-336.39
2026-09-23T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-23 captured
2026-09-24T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-24 captured
2026-09-25T20:45ARMED 341.07 zone 340.46-344.17
2026-09-25T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-25 captured
2026-09-28T13:52UNDERCUT 340.43 TPL: WATCHING — undercut 340.46, flush low 340.43, awaiting reclaim of 344.17
2026-09-28T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-28 captured
2026-09-29T20:45ARMED 328.70 zone 323.17-328.98
2026-09-29T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-29 captured
2026-09-30T20:45ARMED 325.83 zone 323.17-328.98
2026-09-30T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-09-30 captured
2026-10-01T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-01 captured
2026-10-02T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-02 captured
2026-10-05T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-05 captured
2026-10-06T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-06 captured
2026-10-07T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-07 captured
2026-10-08T21:00SESSION_END session 2026-10-08 captured
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